The George Boole Foundation

The Decision Analysis Initiative 2010-2015 - for a better future
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The Decision Analysis Initiative (DAI) is the 2010-2015 an Extension Programme designed to foster the diffusion of innovation through practical demonstrations and the dissemination of information on the technologies, techniques and benefits of decision analysis for organizations, businesses, governance and society. The activities of the DAI have a practical orientation and will include online demonstrations of decision analysis systems design, implementation, operation and assessments of benefits. The DAI will review the current and emerging decision analysis challenges and the most significant recent developments will be identified and explained.

General Orientation

The DAI has two operational emphases:

  • micro and macroeconomic performance
  • real time audit
Micro and macroeconomic performance

The specific conditions facing economic units are diverse, even within specific sectors. As a result the impact of macroeconomic policy and constitution on economic units is highly differentiated. This is one of the main causes of macroeconomic policies lacking traction and thereby failing to achieve anticipated rates of growth in real terms. Since the 1970s this performance problem has been exacerbated by the growth in financialization as a compensation for the ineffectiveness of macroeconomic policy. This has led to the substitution of real growth by nominal growth. The overall outcome has been a depreciation of the Pound Sterling by some 97% between 1945 to 2012.

The Decision Analysis Initiative is guided by an Economic Performance Task Force charged with the objective of identifying the main relationships between technical, economic & financial performance and macroeconomic policy.

This effort is required because the conventional theories that dominate the design of macroeconomic policy-making make inadequate provision for the contribution of technology, technique, learning and innovation.
  DAI   2010-2015            The Logic of Real Time Audit
Food, Fibre
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Accordingly policies have an inadequate accommodation for these essential factors; much innovation and growth takes place in spite of macroeconomic policy. Typically, "industrial policy" is a series of ad hoc initiatives that are essentially compensating for failures of macroeconomic policy to remove constraints and/or provide adequate incentives to business.

Real Time Audit

Real Time Audit (RTA) is the revolutionary capability of being able to record information and to access and share that information instantly from anywhere in the world and at a very low cost. This has been facilitated by World Wide Web (WWW) technologies and techniques and the Internet communications infrastructure.

In spite of the simplicity of the RTA concept the implementations of online systems can be both expensive and inappropriate. In most cases, where business automation is directed by adopting ready-made tools the gains in performance are often lower than expected. It is important to ensure that the overall business process and its relationship to a specified product or service output is fully analysed before introducing "cloud" solutions. However, because of the immense diversity of business models and processes and even greater diversity in product and service requirements, there is a need to analyse the operational side in some depth before selecting the information required and the configuration of an RTA system.

The Decision Analysis Initiative has made RTA a priority activity because of its potential adaptability to any business model. The RTA activity is guided by a Real Time Audit Task Force charged with the objective of identifying appropriate methods for the identification of needs in different areas of business operations. This Task Force works closely with the Economic Performance Task Force so as to maximise the synergy between micro-economic efficiency and overall macroeconomic performance in terms of real growth.